All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.
Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.
| Pollster | Poll Date | Pollster Rating | Popular Vote | Head to Head | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris49.3%
|
Trump49.2%
|
Harris50.1%
|
Trump49.9%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris48.6%
|
Trump49.2%
|
Harris49.7%
|
Trump50.3%
|
|
| YouGov | Oct 11 - 16 |
Harris48%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris45%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris47.4%
|
Trump52.6%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris44%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris47.3%
|
Trump52.7%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris46%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris47.4%
|
Trump52.6%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris45%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris46.9%
|
Trump53.1%
|
|
| Emerson | Oct 05 - 08 |
Harris48.2%
|
Trump50.5%
|
Harris48.8%
|
Trump51.2%
|
|
| RMG Research | Sep 30 - Oct 02 |
Harris46%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris47.9%
|
Trump52.1%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 27 - 28 |
Harris47.6%
|
Trump51.7%
|
Harris47.9%
|
Trump52.1%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris48.6%
|
Trump49.7%
|
Harris49.4%
|
Trump50.6%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris48.6%
|
Trump49.8%
|
Harris49.4%
|
Trump50.6%
|
|
| Suffolk | Sep 19 - 24 |
Harris42.4%
|
Trump48.4%
|
Harris46.7%
|
Trump53.3%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris48%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 19 - 24 |
Harris49%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris47%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 19 - 24 |
Harris48%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris47%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris48%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris42%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris47.2%
|
Trump52.8%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris45%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris47.4%
|
Trump52.6%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris45%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris47.9%
|
Trump52.1%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris43%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris47.3%
|
Trump52.7%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 15 - 18 |
Harris48.7%
|
Trump49.8%
|
Harris49.4%
|
Trump50.6%
|
|