All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.
Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.
| Pollster | Poll Date | Pollster Rating | Popular Vote | Head to Head | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris48.1%
|
Trump48.4%
|
Harris49.8%
|
Trump50.2%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris48.4%
|
Trump48.3%
|
Harris50.1%
|
Trump49.9%
|
|
| Emerson | Oct 05 - 08 |
Harris49.2%
|
Trump48.1%
|
Harris50.6%
|
Trump49.4%
|
|
| RMG Research | Sep 30 - Oct 03 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris50.6%
|
Trump47.7%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris50.5%
|
Trump47.7%
|
Harris51.4%
|
Trump48.6%
|
|
| Remington | Sep 16 - 20 |
Harris48%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 15 - 18 |
Harris48.8%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.9%
|
Trump50.1%
|
|