All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.
Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.
| Pollster | Poll Date | Pollster Rating | Popular Vote | Head to Head | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris47.4%
|
Trump49.9%
|
Harris48.7%
|
Trump51.3%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris46.5%
|
Trump49.8%
|
Harris48.3%
|
Trump51.7%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris49%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris50%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris49%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Oct 07 - 10 |
Harris50%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | Oct 02 - 09 |
Harris46%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Emerson | Oct 05 - 08 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49.7%
|
Harris49.6%
|
Trump50.4%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 03 - 07 |
Harris49%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.0%
|
Trump49.0%
|
|
| Research Co. | Oct 05 - 07 |
Harris50%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 03 - 07 |
Harris49%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris51.6%
|
Trump48.4%
|
|
| YouGov/Center for Working Class Politics | Sep 24 - Oct 02 |
Harris46.8%
|
Trump44.7%
|
Harris51.1%
|
Trump48.9%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 27 - 28 |
Harris49.3%
|
Trump48.8%
|
Harris50.3%
|
Trump49.7%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris48%
|
Trump50.6%
|
Harris48.7%
|
Trump51.3%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris48.1%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris48%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris51.1%
|
Trump48.9%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris47%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris50%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris51.0%
|
Trump49.0%
|
|
| Susquehanna | Sep 16 - 22 |
Harris46%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| RMG Research | Sep 18 - 20 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Remington | Sep 16 - 20 |
Harris47%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Muhlenberg | Sep 16 - 19 |
Harris48%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | Sep 11 - 19 |
Harris48%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris51.1%
|
Trump48.9%
|
|
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 12 - 18 |
Harris52%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris52.5%
|
Trump47.5%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 15 - 18 |
Harris49.6%
|
Trump49.3%
|
Harris50.2%
|
Trump49.8%
|
|
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 12 - 18 |
Harris50%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 12 - 17 |
Harris49%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 12 - 17 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 11 - 16 |
Harris50%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris51%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris52.6%
|
Trump47.4%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 11 - 16 |
Harris49%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 11 - 16 |
Harris48%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris51.6%
|
Trump48.4%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 11 - 16 |
Harris50%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris52.1%
|
Trump47.9%
|
|
| The Washington Post | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris48%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| The Washington Post | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris48%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris51%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris53.1%
|
Trump46.9%
|
|
| Suffolk | Sep 11 - 14 |
Harris48.6%
|
Trump45.6%
|
Harris51.6%
|
Trump48.4%
|
|