All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.
Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.
| Pollster | Poll Date | Pollster Rating | Popular Vote | Head to Head | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris47.3%
|
Trump50.2%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris46.8%
|
Trump49.6%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| RMG Research | Oct 10 - 16 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Mitchell | Oct 14 - 14 |
Harris47.4%
|
Trump48.5%
|
Harris49.4%
|
Trump50.6%
|
|
| Mitchell | Oct 14 - 14 |
Harris47%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Emerson | Oct 05 - 08 |
Harris49.7%
|
Trump49.6%
|
Harris50.1%
|
Trump49.9%
|
|
| Research Co. | Oct 05 - 07 |
Harris51%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 03 - 07 |
Harris47%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 03 - 07 |
Harris47%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris48.0%
|
Trump52.0%
|
|
| Mitchell | Sep 30 - 30 |
Harris48%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Mitchell | Sep 30 - 30 |
Harris47%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| RMG Research | Sep 24 - 27 |
Harris50%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 21 - 26 |
Harris43%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris48.3%
|
Trump51.7%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 21 - 26 |
Harris46%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 21 - 26 |
Harris45%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris48.9%
|
Trump51.1%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 21 - 26 |
Harris48%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris47.2%
|
Trump50.6%
|
Harris48.3%
|
Trump51.7%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris46.6%
|
Trump50.4%
|
Harris48.0%
|
Trump52.0%
|
|
| Remington | Sep 16 - 20 |
Harris49%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.0%
|
Trump49.0%
|
|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | Sep 11 - 19 |
Harris48%
|
Trump43%
|
Harris52.7%
|
Trump47.3%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 15 - 18 |
Harris50%
|
Trump49.1%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Suffolk | Sep 16 - 18 |
Harris47.6%
|
Trump45.4%
|
Harris51.2%
|
Trump48.8%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 12 - 17 |
Harris50%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 12 - 17 |
Harris52%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris52.5%
|
Trump47.5%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris51%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris52.6%
|
Trump47.4%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 12 - 16 |
Harris50%
|
Trump45%
|
Harris52.6%
|
Trump47.4%
|
|
| Mitchell | Sep 11 - 11 |
Harris47%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Mitchell | Sep 11 - 11 |
Harris48%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|