All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.

Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.

Polling Data

Credit to 538 for their incredibly generous sharing of aggregate 2024 polling data.
Pollster Poll Date Pollster Rating Popular Vote Head to Head
AtlasIntel Oct 12 - 17
Harris48.4%
Trump50.1%
Harris49.1%
Trump50.9%
AtlasIntel Oct 12 - 17
Harris48.1%
Trump49.5%
Harris49.3%
Trump50.7%
East Carolina University Oct 09 - 14
Harris45.8%
Trump48.9%
Harris48.4%
Trump51.6%
Quinnipiac Oct 10 - 14
Harris45%
Trump52%
Harris46.4%
Trump53.6%
Quinnipiac Oct 10 - 14
Harris46%
Trump52%
Harris46.9%
Trump53.1%
RMG Research Oct 07 - 10
Harris47%
Trump50%
Harris48.5%
Trump51.5%
Emerson Oct 05 - 08
Harris49.8%
Trump49.7%
Harris50.1%
Trump49.9%
Quinnipiac Sep 25 - 29
Harris44%
Trump50%
Harris46.8%
Trump53.2%
Quinnipiac Sep 25 - 29
Harris45%
Trump50%
Harris47.4%
Trump52.6%
AtlasIntel Sep 20 - 25
Harris49%
Trump49.6%
Harris49.7%
Trump50.3%
AtlasIntel Sep 20 - 25
Harris49%
Trump49.3%
Harris49.8%
Trump50.2%
Beacon/Shaw Sep 20 - 24
Harris49%
Trump47%
Harris51.0%
Trump49.0%
Beacon/Shaw Sep 20 - 24
Harris51%
Trump48%
Harris51.5%
Trump48.5%
Marist Sep 19 - 24
Harris49%
Trump48%
Harris50.5%
Trump49.5%
Marist Sep 19 - 24
Harris49%
Trump50%
Harris49.5%
Trump50.5%
YouGov Sep 20 - 24
Harris49%
Trump51%
Harris49.0%
Trump51.0%
Beacon/Shaw Sep 20 - 24
Harris50%
Trump48%
Harris51.0%
Trump49.0%
Beacon/Shaw Sep 20 - 24
Harris51%
Trump48%
Harris51.5%
Trump48.5%
Siena/NYT Sep 17 - 21
Harris44%
Trump47%
Harris48.4%
Trump51.6%
Siena/NYT Sep 17 - 21
Harris43%
Trump46%
Harris48.3%
Trump51.7%
Siena/NYT Sep 17 - 21
Harris44%
Trump48%
Harris47.8%
Trump52.2%
Siena/NYT Sep 17 - 21
Harris45%
Trump49%
Harris47.9%
Trump52.1%
Emerson Sep 15 - 18
Harris48.2%
Trump50.3%
Harris48.9%
Trump51.1%