All data are rounded down, which is why a value of 50% indicates a Democrat win.
Below is a chart that shows the probability distribution of the Democrats' head-to-head vote share in based on pollsters that are well-rated by 538 since the Sept 10 presidential debate. Vertical black lines indicate a roughly 95% confidence interval.
| Pollster | Poll Date | Pollster Rating | Popular Vote | Head to Head | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris49.5%
|
Trump48.8%
|
Harris50.4%
|
Trump49.6%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 12 - 17 |
Harris50.5%
|
Trump48.8%
|
Harris50.9%
|
Trump49.1%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 10 - 14 |
Harris49%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.0%
|
Trump49.0%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Oct 10 - 14 |
Harris50%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris51.5%
|
Trump48.5%
|
|
| Emerson | Oct 05 - 08 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49.9%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| The Washington Post | Sep 25 - 29 |
Harris47%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris48.5%
|
Trump51.5%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 25 - 29 |
Harris48%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| High Point University | Sep 20 - 29 |
Harris48%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Quinnipiac | Sep 25 - 29 |
Harris47%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| The Washington Post | Sep 25 - 29 |
Harris48%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| High Point University | Sep 20 - 29 |
Harris48%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris51.1%
|
Trump48.9%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 27 - 28 |
Harris49.1%
|
Trump49.9%
|
Harris49.6%
|
Trump50.4%
|
|
| RMG Research | Sep 25 - 27 |
Harris47%
|
Trump51%
|
Harris48.0%
|
Trump52.0%
|
|
| East Carolina University | Sep 23 - 26 |
Harris47.1%
|
Trump49.4%
|
Harris48.8%
|
Trump51.2%
|
|
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris48%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris50.8%
|
Trump47.3%
|
Harris51.8%
|
Trump48.2%
|
|
| AtlasIntel | Sep 20 - 25 |
Harris50.5%
|
Trump48.1%
|
Harris51.2%
|
Trump48.8%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris50%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris51.0%
|
Trump49.0%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris49%
|
Trump50%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris48%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 19 - 24 |
Harris49%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris50.5%
|
Trump49.5%
|
|
| Marist | Sep 19 - 24 |
Harris49%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Beacon/Shaw | Sep 20 - 24 |
Harris47%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris46%
|
Trump46%
|
Harris50.0%
|
Trump50.0%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris47%
|
Trump48%
|
Harris49.5%
|
Trump50.5%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris45%
|
Trump47%
|
Harris48.9%
|
Trump51.1%
|
|
| Siena/NYT | Sep 17 - 21 |
Harris47%
|
Trump49%
|
Harris49.0%
|
Trump51.0%
|
|
| Emerson | Sep 15 - 18 |
Harris49.7%
|
Trump49.3%
|
Harris50.2%
|
Trump49.8%
|
|